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03/09/2010 - St. Paul, MN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Cory Stillman forced overtime with a third- period equalizer, then snuck a shot inside the left post for the lone score in the shootout, as Florida downed Minnesota, 3-2, to snap a seven-game winless stretch in the series.
Stillman scored with 9:20 to go in regulation and capped the fourth round of the shootout with the game-winner to build off of Michael Frolik's third- period tally and complete the comeback from down two for Florida's third straight win.
Tomas Vokoun's outing was relatively uneventful playing behind a stingy Panther defense corps that allowed a franchise record-low 11 shots by the Wild.
The Panthers won their first road game since January 14, snapping a six-game losing streak away from home, and toppled Minnesota for only the second time in the team's history. Florida won on Minnesota's home ice for the first time with its only other win in the series coming back on February 7, 2001.
Mikko Koivu and Robbie Earl scored for the Wild, who got 29 saves from Niklas Backstrom and dropped their third straight game.
Koivu's power-play marker popped the water bottle from the left circle three minutes into the game and Earl's solid wrister found space under Vokoun's arm to make it 2-0 at the 11:01 mark of the first.
A scoreless second saw Vokoun tested with just three shots, while Backstrom turned aside nine.
Frolik broke through for the Panthers just over two minutes into the third, taking a long outlet pass through the neutral zone from Bryan McCabe and going in solo to beat Backstrom up high.
Stillman received a drop pass from Steven Reinprecht in the slot and ripped a shot to the top right corner through two defenders to tie the game at 2-2.
Game Notes
The Panthers had been 0-3 with a tie in their four previous trips to St. Paul...Minnesota has dropped four of its last five game at home...Florida went 0-for-4 on the power play, while the Wild converted their lone chance.
<< Broncos bolster defensive line with Green, Williams
Englewood, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Denver Broncos added a pair of defensive
linemen to their roster by signing Jarvis Green and Jamal Williams on Tuesday.
Green had spent each of his eight NFL seasons with the Patriots after New
Engl
<< Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference Tournament Recaps
Winstom-Salem, NC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - C.J. Reed scored a game-high 23 points as
he led the Bethune-Cookman Wildcats to a 64-53 win over the Florida A&M
Rattlers in the opening round of the 39th annual Mid-Eastern Athletic
Con
<< Bogut, Bucks down Celtics in Milwaukee
Milwaukee, WI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Andrew Bogut totaled 25 points, 17 rebounds
and four blocks, and the Bucks used a run in the fourth quarter to take the
lead and then held off the Boston Celtics, 86-84, at the Bradley Center.
Carlos De
<< Darche, Canadiens down Lightning
Montreal, QC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Mathieu Darche scored a pair of goals to help
the Montreal Canadiens defeat the Tampa Bay Lightning, 5-3, at the Bell
Centre.
Scott Gomez had a goal and two assists for the Canadiens, who have won th
Butler takes Horizon League crown in rout >>
Indianapolis, IN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Matt Howard and Shelvin Mack each scored
14 points, as the 12th-ranked Butler Bulldogs officially punched their ticket
to the NCAA Tournament with a 70-45 victory over Wright State in the Horizon
League
Samuelsson nets hat trick, Canucks rally past Avs >>
Denver, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Mikael Samuelsson recorded his first NHL hat
trick and Jannik Hansen scored a controversial goal late in the third period
to help the Canucks rally to beat the Colorado Avalanche, 6-4, at the Pepsi
Center.
Blue Jackets-Ducks Sum >>
Columbus 1 2 2-5Anaheim 0 0 2-2First Period-1, Columbus, Dorsett 4 (Vermette, Blunden), 8:55.Second Period-2, Columbus, Voracek 10 (Tyutin, Stralman), 8:14 (pp). 3, Columbus, Tyutin 5 (Voracek, Umberger), 13:07.Third Period-4, Anaheim, Visnov
Kelly, Senators handle Oilers >>
Edmonton, AB (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Chris Kelly registered a goal and an assist to
lead the Ottawa Senators to a 4-1 win over the Edmonton Oilers at Rexall
Place.
Mike Fisher, Matt Cullen and Milan Michalek also scored for the Senators, w
Super Bowl XLIII isn't even a week old yet and oddsmakers have already released Super Bowl XLIV odds.
Despite the Pittsburgh Steelers winning Super Bowl 43, the New England Patriots are 8/1 favorites to win Super Bowl 44.
Bet Super Bowl XLIV Future Odds
With their 27-23 victory over the Arizona Cardinals in Super Bowl XLIII, the Steelers became the latest NFL champion. But believe it or not, oddsmakers from online sports book MySportsbook.com don't have the Steelers the favorites to win Super Bowl XLIV next season.
That honor belongs to the New England Patriots, who are 8/1 favorites to win despite not even qualify for the postseason in 2008. The Pats also have a major decision to make regarding what to do with Matt Cassel, who played well in Tom Brady's (knee surgery) absence last year but is also a free agent this offseason.
Ironically, the Steelers aren't even oddsmakers second choice to win Super Bowl 44, as the Dallas Cowboys are listed right behind the Patriots at 9/1 despite not making the playoffs themselves. Clearly oddsmakers think the public will hop back on the Cowboys' bandwagon considering the immense talent they have and the opening of a brand new stadium.
After Dallas, then comes Pittsburgh at 10/1, but they share those odds with the New York Giants, who won Super Bowl XLII. The Indianapolis Colts and San Diego Chargers round out the top six teams at 12/1, while the Baltimore Ravens (14/1), Tennessee Titans (16/1), Carolina Panthers (18/1) and Philadelphia Eagles (18/1) complete the top 10.
The NFC Champion Arizona Cardinals got no love from oddsmakers as they were established as a 30/1 long shot to win next year's Super Bowl. They share those same odds with the Chicago Bears and Tampa Bay Buccaneers – two teams that didn't even qualify for the postseason. Other long shots are the Kansas City Chiefs (100/1), Detroit Lions (100/1), St. Louis Rams (75/1) and Oakland Raiders (75/1).
To see a complete list of all the team's odds to win Super Bowl XLIV, check below.
NFL TEAM FUTURE ODDS TO WIN SUPER BOWL XLIV
New England Patriots 8/1
Dallas Cowboys 9/1
New York Giants 10/1
Pittsburgh Steelers 10/1
Indianapolis Colts 12/1
San Diego Chargers 12/1
Baltimore Ravens 14/1
Tennessee Titans 16/1
Carolina Panthers 18/1
Philadelphia Eagles 18/1
New Orleans Saints 20/1
Atlanta Falcons 25/1
Denver Broncos 25/1
Green Bay Packers 25/1
Jacksonville Jaguars 25/1
Minnesota Vikings 25/1
New York Jets 25/1
Arizona Cardinals 30/1
Chicago BearS 30/1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30/1
Buffalo Bills 35/1
Houston TexaNS 35/1
Miami Dolphins 35/1
Washington Redskins 35/1
Seattle SeahawkS 50/1
Cleveland Browns 55/1
Cincinnati Bengals 60/1
San Francisco 49ers 60/1
Oakland Raiders 75/1
St. Louis Rams 75/1
Detroit Lions 100/1
Kansas City Chiefs 100/1
Odds as of: 2/2/09
Bet Super Bowl XLIV Future Odds
To visit this online sportsbook go to MySportsbook.com for all your NFL football betting needs.
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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