NHL: Five burning Central Division questions

Hockey Betting Lines

08/30/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - With training camps opening Sept. 12, there is no better time than the present to begin asking the single-most important question for each of the 30 NHL teams.

The first of six installments begins in the Western Conference, with the Central Division. Let's jump right into the fray with quite possibly the number one question of the entire league: Can Marty Turco effectively replace Antti Niemi and lead the Blackhawks back to the Stanley Cup Finals?

Turco comes to Chicago on the cheap after spending nine seasons in Dallas. The Ontario native has seen his skills decline in recent years to the point where he is not even considered one of the elite goaltenders in the league. In fact, one could argue the change in style of play since the lockout has highlighted his gargantuan failures.

Prior to 2005, Turco's career goals-against average stood at 1.91. Since then, it is more than one half-goal higher at 2.53. In addition, his overall save percentage has dropped dramatically since the lockout, from .922 down to .905.

It is true the defense in front of him this season will be a thousand times better than the one that skated in Dallas, but that fact was lost on Cristobal Huet, who came into Chicago with a career .918 save percentage and couldn't hold down the number-one spot in either of his two seasons as a Hawk.

It is also interesting to note that Kari Lehtonen recorded a 2.81 GAA and a .911 save percentage for Dallas after playing in only four minor league games the entire year. Meanwhile, Turco's 2.72 and .913 numbers were extremely similar even though he was healthy for most of the season, save for missing three games with the flu.

The Blackhawks, forced to cut ties with Niemi due to salary cap restrictions, could find themselves in a similar situation as last year if Turco struggles, so do not be shocked if backup Corey Crawford winds up leading the reigning champions back into the playoffs.

CAN JIMMY HOWARD DUPLICATE HIS 2009-10 CAMPAIGN?

Detroit is poised to bring the Stanley Cup back to Hockeytown after a two-year drought. All the pieces are in place offensively as well as defensively. However, one area must remain strong, and that's between the pipes.

Jimmy Howard was spectacular during the regular season, allowing four goals or more just 11 times in 63 games. Unfortunately, the 26-year-old could not find his groove in the playoffs, giving up four or more six times in only 12 starts.

With Chris Osgood as his backup, Howard will once again get the bulk of the starts to prove his first full season (37 wins, 2.26 GAA, .924 save percentage) was not a fluke. His development will decide Detroit's fate once the postseason begins.

WILL NASHVILLE IMPROVE ENOUGH DEFENSIVELY?

Dan Hamhuis was a major contributor to the Predators defense for six solid seasons. The defenseman will now ply his trade with the Vancouver Canucks after signing a six-year deal this past July 1.

Nashville relied heavily on its top four defensemen more so than any other team in the league, as all four ranked in the top 50 players in terms of even- strength minutes. The loss of Hamhuis could have a ripple effect on the rest of the unit, particularly since only Ryan Parent was brought in as a replacement.

Furthermore, restricted free agent Cody Franson remains unsigned. If the second-year defenseman and the team fail to reach an agreement on a new deal, it could be a long season for the Predators.

CAN THE BLUES REJUVENATE THEIR OFFENSE?

Contrary to popular opinion, the Blues' season will not revolve around newcomer Jaroslav Halak. The goaltender that lifted the Canadiens to the Eastern Conference Finals should have little problems adapting to the new conference considering he holds a 12-4 lifetime record against the West.

The main question concerning St. Louis comes from an offense that struggled to find the back of the net. Only four Western Conference teams scored fewer goals than the Blues and all four failed to make the postseason.

Not only did the forwards combine for just 192 goals, but nine of the top 12 produced a lower goals-per-game mark than the year before. Moreover, Brad Boyes and David Backes could not even reach half of their 67 goal total from 2008-09, picking up only 31 goals a season ago.

One problem is the lack of a true puck-carrying defenseman outside of Erik Johnson. If Alex Pietrangelo is ready for full-time duty with the big club, his passing skills will help open up the ice for the young forwards in their quest for more offense.

WILL COLUMBUS IMPROVE ON THE ROAD?

Only one team won fewer road games than the Blue Jackets last season and that was the Edmonton Oilers, who wound up with the worst record in the entire league. Columbus finished the year 12-23-6 away from home, with an abysmal 6-19-5 mark over its final 30 games. The Jackets scored four goals or more just four times over that span after reaching the total six times in their first 11.

Two seasons ago, Columbus reached the playoffs for the first time in team history partly due to its 16-18-7 road mark - the club's finest winning percentage away from home. If the Blue Jackets cannot improve their play on the road, expect another season without a trip to the playoffs.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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