Fire burning to "exact a little revenge" on Revs

Soccer Betting Lines

11/07/2007 - Foxborough, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Two days before the New England Revolution clinched their Major League Soccer record sixth-consecutive berth in the Eastern Conference final - to be played at Gillett Stadium on Thursday - the Chicago Fire booked their spot by knocking off top-seeded D.C. United.

Immediately after that game at D.C. the Fire let it be known who they were rooting for in the other Eastern semifinal series between the Revs and Red Bull New York.

"I think we will do well, regardless of what team we play," said Fire attacker Chris Rolfe, who scored two of Chicago's three goals in the 3-2 series win vs. United. "Obviously it would be nice to play New England because they knocked us out (of the playoffs) last year and they knocked us out my first year, too. So it would be good to get some revenge on them."

"I personally kind of want to play New England," Fire forward Chad Barrett said. "Exact a little revenge."

After New England, which has advanced to the MLS Cup final the past two seasons - both losses - squeaked out a 1-0, aggregate series win over the Red Bulls, the Fire got their wish while giving the Revs some bulletin board material, which was played off by captain Steve Ralston.

"It's nothing," he said of Barrett and Rolfe's comments. "We are not going to post that up in the locker room and say, 'look at what these guys are talking.' It makes no difference to us, we will be ready to play. They are a good team, we will be ready to play. It's the semifinals of the Cup, we are at home, we are going to try and be the aggressor of the game and whatever, it doesn't bother us either way."

The teams have a long history with this being their fifth all-time playoff matchup with New England holding a 3-2 lead. Most recently the Fire were edged by the Revs in penalty kicks in last season's Eastern semis. New England also eliminated Chicago from the playoffs three of the last five seasons while the Fire earned a 2003 conference final win over their rivals. To add more fuel to the rivalry, New England's win over Chicago in the regular season finale in 2004 kept the Fire out of the postseason for the first, and only time, in team history.

"I think the rivalry comes from meeting and playing each other in important games," Chicago captain Chris Armas said. "It's not because we play each other on opening day every time. It just seems so many times we meet in the playoffs, conference finals, (U.S.) Open Cup games and the games have been close. It is a healthy competition. I think it's mutual respect, players to the coaches on both sides and I think both sides are looking forward to the match."

The Fire are the hottest team in MLS, unbeaten in their last 10 league fixtures, including a win and a draw against D.C. in the semis. There have been a number of players who have contributed to the run, but attackers Cuauhtemoc Blanco and Chris Rolfe and the defense's ability to hold opponents to just eight goals during the streak are the main reasons for the club's top form.

"I think the biggest threat (Rolfe) possesses is in and around the box," New England coach Steve Nicol said. "The goal he scored (in the second leg) against D.C. (a 2-2 draw) was just a great striker's goal, instinct inside the box. He got there first and put it past the goalkeeper before he even thought about it."

"The most important thing is to be aware with where he is at on the field," Ralston said of Blanco. "If you give him time he is going to be dangerous. He finds holes, little gaps and tries to make room for himself. If we allow him to turn and face the goal he can play some great balls."

The Revolution will count on their previous playoff experiences to cool down the red hot Fire in the game.

"We've been here before and probably been in every situation that's possible over those five (previous conference final) games so that makes you more than well equipped to face whatever comes along," Nicol said.

The Fire will count on their tough schedule down the stretch, needing to go on the impressive unbeaten streak to even make the playoffs, which they did on the last day of the regular season.

"We have been in very tough matches in the last two months and it has helped, especially our young players, to become more mature and dealing with those huge games and dealing with games that really mean a lot," Fire coach Juan Carlos Osorio said. "For me, I have seen signs from my players that they are a lot more comfortable with those tough games and hopefully we can show that on Thursday night."

The Fire will have to be at their very best once again to advance past a veteran Revolution team that has been together for awhile.

"They have two very good finishers in (Taylor) Twellman and (Pat) Noonan. Noonan more crafty, Twellman has that natural goal (scoring ability). He can score any type of goals," Osorio said. "They have very good service from the flank. (Khano) Smith (has) long strides and can outrun you. (Wells) Thompson (is) more like a pinching player, coming inside. Ralston has control and (Andy) Dorman coming from midfield. (Shalrie) Joseph and (Jeff) Larentowicz are very good central midfielders. Joseph more like a distributor and Larentowicz more like a box-to-box midfielder. (They also have) a good goalkeeper (in Matt Reis) and very solid defenders (led by Michael Parkhurst)."

The Fire's form aside, they may regret what they wished for in this Eastern clash against a very talented and driven New England side.

"I feel great personally. More importantly, as a team we are excited about this opportunity, playing at home, playing against the Fire on Thursday, a team we have a lot of respect for," Ralston said. "The past few weeks they have been playing as good as anybody, they have been on a good run, but we feel like we are up to the task and like (Nicol) said, we are biting at the bit to get this game going."

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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