Federer lands in Cincy SFs; Nadal upended

Tennis Betting Lines

08/20/2010 - Mason, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Roger Federer was a straight-set quarterfinal winner, while top seed Rafael Nadal was an upset victim Friday at the $3 million Western & Southern Financial Group Masters, a U.S. Open Series event.

The third-seeded Federer got past sixth-seeded Russian Nikolay Davydenko, 6-4, 7-5 on the hardcourts at the Lindner Family Tennis Center. The Swiss native improved to 7-2 in quarterfinal matches this season and 14-2 against Davydenko.

The 16-time major titlist and former world No. 1 Federer has won three of the last five titles in Cincy (2005, 2007, 2009), including a victory over Serb Novak Djokovic in last year's finale.

Federer's semifinal opponent will be unseeded Cypriot Marcos Baghdatis, who beat the reigning Wimbledon and French Open champion Nadal, 6-4, 4-6, 6-4 in a match that took over two hours and 30 minutes to complete.

Baghdatis picked up his first win against Nadal in seven career meetings. The Spaniard has yet to reach the final at this Cincy Masters event.

Former world No. 1 Andy Roddick and a hot Mardy Fish will meet in an all- American semifinal on Saturday.

The ninth-seeded Roddick handled Djokovic, this week's second seed, 6-4, 7-5 on Day 6 here. The big-serving American popped eight aces and cruised in 1 hour, 23 minutes.

Djokovic broke Roddick when the American was serving for the match at 5-4 in the second set, but Roddick broke right back and then held to close out the bout.

The former Aussie Open champion Djokovic appeared in the last two Cincy finals, losing to Federer here last year and British star Andy Murray in '08.

The former U.S. Open champion Roddick, who titled in Cincinnati in 2003 and 2006 and was the runner-up here in 2005, will next face his good friend Fish for a place in the final. Fish won their most-recent head-to-head battle in Atlanta last month.

The wild card Fish, meanwhile, went the distance to outlast the fourth-seeded Murray, 6-7 (7-9), 6-1, 7-6 (7-5).

Fish overcame the Australian Open runner-up Murray in just under three hours with the help of 13 aces, and the hard-serving American held his serve throughout the hard-fought affair.

The 28-year-old Fish converted on his first match point when Murray netted one final return. Fish is now 3-0 against Murray this season.

Murray required some medical attention on his leg during the lopsided second set for Fish.

The 2003 Cincinnati runner-up Fish has won 15 of his last 16 matches overall, which includes titles in Newport and Atlanta.

Murray, who upset Federer in last week's blockbuster finale at the Canadian Masters event in Toronto and was this year's Aussie Open runner-up to the Swiss icon, was the Cincinnati champ in 2008.

The 2010 Cincinnati titlist will claim $443,500.

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Betting the NFL preseason

Rule No. 1 in the gamblers' handbook states, "Avoid sports betting on meaningless games."

When you're drowning in a sea of baseball monotony, however, things change. Even a hint of pro football betting can persuade the most disciplined bettor to break a few rules. 

The NFL preseason is around the corner, with a tempting Hall of Fame match kicking off on Sunday. But bettors must stay vigilant. Wagering on NFL exhibition games is an entirely different beast than the regular season. Most fans don't recognize the players on the field because starters get as much action in August as Warcraft fans get on Prom night.

The only certainty about the NFL this time of year is uncertainty – and yet there are some who say betting in August can be a gold mine.

“I actually feel the NFL preseason presents solid profit opportunities for sharp bettors and handicappers,” Sports Expert Steve Merril explains. “My experience has been that the sportsbooks fear the preseason, which is evident by lower limits and massive moves.”

The line moves are attributed to the limited knowledge available regarding playing-time distribution. One team’s top unit out on the field for one more series has an impact on the pointspread. Setting lines in the preseason often is a shot in the dark.

“We base the betting lines mostly on public perception,” Pete Korner, founder of the Sports Club in Las Vegas, says. “It’s very tough to predict, almost a guessing game.”

The preseason is all about figuring out who’s in and for how long.

“It becomes a race between bettors and oddsmakers to find out how long the quarterbacks are going to stay in,” Korner admits. “If a sharp gets the information first, he could exploit an early line. I’m a full believer in moving the line in the preseason if the books find out something late in the week.”

Determining what each team’s motive is can help bettors handicap. To do this you must pay close attention to the philosophies head coaches employ in exhibition play.

“You need to know what a coach is trying to accomplish,” says Covers Expert Bryan Leonard. “Sometimes a new coach will want to instill a winning attitude. Others just want to make sure their starters don’t get hurt."

So how do you distinguish who’s playing scared and who’s playing for keeps?

“Head coaches on the hot seat or new coaches trying to implement a winning attitude usually try harder to win in the preseason,” Merril says.

Cleveland Browns head coach Romeo Crennel fits this criteria. He’s entering his third season as the sideline boss and has yet to lead the Browns to more than six wins.

Cleveland is an enticing bet as well because of the unresolved quarterback situation. General manager Phil Savage sacrificed the Browns’ first-round pick in next year’s draft for Brady Quinn, but the former Notre Dame quarterback hasn’t signed or reported to training camp yet.

Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson split time at QB last season and it looks like either player (or even Quinn) could be the opening-day starter.

“If a team has quarterback depth and the pecking order hasn’t been decided, it’s a big advantage,” Leonard says.

Even in the third week of the preseason when starters generally play the most, the final outcome of the game is in the hands of fringe players. A team's talent, all the way down to the last man on the roster, is something to consider.

The New England Patriots have long been considered one of the deeper teams in the NFL and coach Bill Belichick has said in the past he’s unafraid of stars getting hurt in games with nothing on the line. He shocked his colleagues in 2003 by playing some of his starters on special teams in the preseason.

“We want to have the team ready to play a tough, physical game and preparation has to go into that and I imagine a certain amount of injuries go with it,” Belichick told the Providence Journal in August 2003.

Bettors can only hope to find more teams that share the Pats' business-like approach to the preseason (New England is 17-9-3 against the spread since 2000) and take advantage of teams who detest the exhibition schedule.

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